Arms Race Readings

● Nukes disproportionate to any political goal -> reentry of limited war

● Crises replaced wars as ‘moments of truth’, deterrence, “crystal ball effect”

● Deterrence works covering an ally, but less credible, say, getting USSR out of

Afghanistan, about stakes

● Deterrence more difficult with non state actors (terrorists)

● Sanctions- bad compromise- not strong enough to stop national interest, but alienate

● NPT signatories- no consequences, Iran Deal- no consequences after 15 years->

other programs wish to start, lack of transparency

● Ukraine, Iraq, Libya all gave up nuclear weapons, all invaded

● BUT no program has started since the Cold War

● NPT still provided a global diplomatic norm and mechanism to denuclearize

● Loopholes in treaty, USSR increased, India, Israel, China developed

● Reagan’s buildup strengthened Soviet resolve, helped gov’t hang on longer

● Military spending up in East Asia 4%, Western Europe 2%

● Off-budget spending (Venezuela), lack of UN reporting participation

● Western countries exporting arms to Middle East/Asia, China importing and exporting

● New START (US-Russia reduction) won’t be renegotiated

● TPNW- legally binding, stigmatizing preventing

● INF- missiles in Europe

● Intangible transfers of technology (ITT), difficult to detect/enforce